US Military Warns “Sudden Collapse” of Mexico is Possible

The US Joint Forces Command questions the stability of the Mexican government because  “…its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels.” In late December the US National Guard warned its officers to stay out of Mexico, specifically the northern state of Sonora and the city of Tijuana.

President Felipe Calderon has entered into a full military assault against the well funded ($50b in 2008) and well armed drug cartels. Deaths in Tijuana have skyrocketed in the last few years and over 500 people have been killed since September. The drug cartels kill indiscriminately, and it is common for innocent civilians and tourists to be caught in the cross-fire.

Mexican drug violence has spread into the South Western United States, with kidnappings for extortion and violent gun battles in Phoenix, San Diego, El Paso, and smaller towns along the Mexican border.

The US Joint Forces Command warns that:

“How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”

…

“Predictions about the future are always risky … Regardless, if we do not try to forecast the future, there is no doubt that we will be caught off guard as we strive to protect this experiment in democracy that we call America.”

From The El Paso Times:

US Military Reports “Sudden Collapse” of Mexico is Possible

2,000 Fresh Troops Sent to Juarez as Violence Continues